Every Saturday morning I sit down with the week’s economic releases and read the actual documents — the Bureau of Labor Statistics news release, the company filing, the survey report — rather than the headlines written about them. It takes longer, but the primary source almost always says something slightly different from the summary. This week gave me five things worth reading closely: a July jobs report that came in negative, a services survey where prices climbed while hiring shrank, mortgage rates drifting back up, and two very different earnings reports that both beat expectations for very different reasons. Every number below is checked against the original release, and each one is linked so you can read it yourself.
1. U.S. Payrolls Fell 23,000 in July — and May and June Got Worse
What happened. On Friday, August 7, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in July, at -23,000, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1 percent with 6.9 million people unemployed. The bigger story sat two paragraphs down. May was revised from +129,000 to +63,000, and June from +57,000 to +20,000 — leaving employment in those two months a combined 103,000 lower than previously reported. Within July, local government education shed 50,000 jobs and retail trade lost 19,000, led by a 21,000 decline at warehouse clubs, supercenters and other general merchandise retailers. Financial activities fell 14,000 and is now down 121,000 from its May 2025 peak. Health care still grew, at +22,000, but well below its prior 12-month average of +36,000.
Why it matters. A single negative month is noise. A negative month plus a 103,000 downward revision is a different signal: it means the labor market we thought we had in late spring was not the one we actually had. Average hourly earnings tell the same story more quietly — at $37.62 they rose just 2 cents on the month, up 3.2 percent over the year. Wage growth that slow is hard to square with an economy running hot.
Context. Payrolls had averaged monthly gains of 34,000 over the prior 12 months, so July did not fall off a cliff — it fell below an already low bar. The composition matters too. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1 percent partly because people left the labor force: the participation rate was 61.4 percent and the employment-population ratio 58.9 percent, down 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points respectively since January. Long-term unemployed workers, jobless 27 weeks or more, numbered 1.8 million and made up 25.5 percent of all unemployed people. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
What to watch next. Two dates. On August 28 the BLS publishes its preliminary benchmark revision to establishment survey data — a far more comprehensive rework than the monthly adjustments, cross-checked against state unemployment insurance records. Then the August Employment Situation lands Friday, September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Rate futures reacted immediately to Friday’s print: the implied probability of a Fed hike in September dropped to roughly 44 percent from about 57 percent before the data, with the federal funds target range currently at 3.50–3.75 percent.
2. ISM Services PMI Held at 54.1% While Its Prices Index Hit 70.3%
What happened. On August 5 the Institute for Supply Management reported that the Services PMI registered 54.1 percent in July, the 25th consecutive month in expansion territory, up a tenth of a point from June’s 54.0 percent. Underneath that flat headline, the components moved sharply in opposite directions. The Business Activity Index jumped 3.7 points to 59.1 percent, and New Orders rose 2.1 points to 57.2 percent, its 14th straight month of expansion. But the Employment Index fell 3.8 points to 47.4 percent — back into contraction, its lowest level since March, and below 50 in 12 of the last 18 months. The Prices Index registered 70.3 percent, up 2.6 points from June’s 67.7 percent.
Why it matters. This is the same tension as the jobs report, seen from the business side. Services firms report more demand and more activity, but they are not hiring to meet it, and their input costs keep climbing. A prices reading above 70 is not a rounding error — it is the level at which cost pressure starts showing up in what customers pay. Thirteen industries reported growth in July and four reported contraction.
Context. The Prices Index has now registered above 70 percent for the fourth time in five months and above 60 percent for 20 straight months. Its 12-month average rose to 68.1 percent, the highest since April 2023, when it stood at 69.9 percent. Meanwhile the Employment Index sits 1.3 points below its own 12-month average of 48.7 percent. The manufacturing side looked healthier: the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.6 percent for July, up from 53.3 percent in June and its seventh consecutive month of expansion. ISM notes that a Services PMI above 48.1 percent generally signals overall economic expansion — July marked the 74th straight month above that line.
What to watch next. The July Consumer Price Index is the next real test of whether these input costs are reaching consumers. If services inflation firms up while payrolls stay weak, the Fed faces the least comfortable combination it can get. The August ISM reports arrive in the first week of September.
3. Mortgage Rates Ticked Back Up to 6.69%
What happened. Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released August 6, showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.69 percent, up from 6.66 percent the previous week. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage moved the other way, averaging 6.01 percent versus 6.04 percent a week earlier.
Why it matters. Three basis points is nothing on its own. What makes this number worth tracking is how stubbornly it refuses to fall. For most households the mortgage rate is the single largest price in their financial life, and it has now spent an extended stretch parked in the high sixes. Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, pointed to a market adjusting around that constraint rather than waiting it out — noting listing prices modestly below year-ago levels and for-sale inventory improving from the limited supply of recent years.
Context. A year ago the 30-year averaged 6.63 percent — six basis points below where it sits today. That is the number I keep coming back to. Twelve months of economic argument, and the headline mortgage rate has effectively gone nowhere. The 15-year tells a slightly different story: at 6.01 percent it is well above the 5.75 percent of a year ago, meaning the gap between the two products has narrowed considerably. Note also what the survey measures — conventional, conforming, fully amortizing purchase loans for borrowers putting 20 percent down with excellent credit. Most actual quotes will run higher.
What to watch next. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury more than the fed funds rate, so the reaction to the September FOMC meeting will show up in the bond market first. If inventory really is improving while prices sit below year-ago levels, the affordability math could shift from the price side even if rates do not move.
4. AMD’s Data Center Revenue More Than Doubled to $6.7 Billion
What happened. AMD reported second-quarter results on August 4. Revenue was a record $11.54 billion, up 50 percent year over year, with Data Center segment revenue of $6.72 billion — up 107 percent from a year earlier and 16 percent from the prior quarter. That segment swung from an operating loss of $155 million to operating income of $2.10 billion. GAAP diluted earnings per share came in at $1.38 against $0.54 a year ago; on a non-GAAP basis, $1.66 versus $0.48. Gross margin rose to 54 percent from 40 percent.
Why it matters. Data Center now accounts for well over half of AMD’s revenue, which makes the company a fairly direct read on AI infrastructure spending. Two commitments disclosed alongside the results give that number some shape: an agreement with Anthropic to deploy up to two gigawatts of AMD Instinct MI450 Series GPUs in AMD Helios racks, and an expanded collaboration with Microsoft to deploy Helios and 6th Gen EPYC CPUs across Azure. Contracts measured in gigawatts rather than units are a reminder that the binding constraint on this buildout is increasingly electrical, not silicon.
Context. The year-ago comparison is flattered by a real distortion: Q2 2025 included $800 million in inventory and related charges tied to U.S. export controls on the MI308 data center GPU. Strip that out and the growth is still large, but the 107 percent figure deserves that asterisk. It is also worth noticing what did not grow. Client and Gaming revenue rose just 6 percent to $3.84 billion, and its operating income actually fell 24 percent to $582 million. Embedded revenue rose 19 percent to $977 million. The AI story is carrying the company; the PC and gaming side is roughly flat.
What to watch next. AMD guided third-quarter revenue to approximately $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million, with non-GAAP gross margin around 56 percent. The question for the next report is whether Data Center margin holds as the Instinct mix grows, and whether Client and Gaming stabilizes.
5. Disney’s Parks and Streaming Both Delivered — and a Tariff Refund Helped
What happened. Disney reported fiscal third-quarter results on August 5 for the quarter ended June 27, 2026. Revenue rose 7 percent to $25.25 billion, and total segment operating income increased 21 percent to $5.56 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.06 against $1.61 a year ago, while GAAP diluted EPS fell to $1.51 from $2.92. The Experiences segment — parks, resorts and cruise line — produced revenue of $9.97 billion, up 10 percent, with operating income up 20 percent to $3.02 billion. Entertainment revenue rose 6 percent to $11.35 billion, but its operating income jumped 64 percent to $1.68 billion.
Why it matters. Disney is one of the cleaner public reads on discretionary consumer spending, because a theme park ticket is about as optional as a purchase gets. Global guests across the Experiences segment grew 4 percent and domestic park attendance grew 3 percent, with domestic parks and experiences revenue up 11 percent. Against a week of soft labor data, that is a genuinely useful counterpoint: households at the top of the income distribution are still spending on experiences.
Context. The company disclosed that a tariff refund represented roughly four percentage points of the Experiences segment’s 20 percent operating income growth, with no impact on segment revenues — so the underlying operating growth is closer to 16 percent. On the streaming side, Entertainment SVOD revenue grew 11 percent, with subscription revenue up 15 percent and an SVOD operating margin of 13 percent. Disney also reported its strongest year-over-year Consumer Products revenue growth in 20 quarters. Note that GAAP EPS fell while adjusted EPS rose — a gap large enough that the choice of measure changes the headline entirely.
What to watch next. Disney raised its fiscal 2026 share repurchase target to at least $9 billion, funded in part by roughly $1.2 billion in proceeds from divesting its 50 percent stake in A+E Global Media. It also intends to shift much of its Consumer Products business from the Experiences segment into Entertainment beginning in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 — which will make year-over-year segment comparisons considerably harder to read. Full-year guidance remains adjusted EPS growth of approximately 12 percent excluding the 53rd week, or about 16 percent including it.
The Thread Running Through the Week
Read together, these five releases describe an economy that is still producing and still selling, but has stopped hiring. Payrolls went negative and two prior months were revised down. The ISM services survey showed activity and new orders accelerating while its employment index fell back into contraction. AMD posted record revenue on AI infrastructure demand while its consumer-facing segment went sideways. Disney filled its parks and grew its streaming margin. Mortgage rates sat almost exactly where they sat a year ago. The common thread is a widening gap between output and employment — firms finding ways to grow without adding headcount, and input costs rising anyway. That combination is unusual, and it is what makes the next round of inflation data more consequential than usual. As always, I would rather point you at the original releases than at anyone’s summary of them, including mine.
This is not investment advice.